Key points:

• India and Indonesia elections should be positive for regional stability and growth

• Indonesia moves cattle in preparation for Qurban (Festival of Sacrifice)

• RMCP ends its Aus-Indo 10-year $60 million support program

The recent elections in India and Indonesia hold significant implications for both regional dynamics and Australia’s interests.

In India, the election resulted in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing 240 seats, falling short of the 272 majority needed to govern alone. This marks a substantial decrease from the 303 seats won in 2019. The BJP will now rely on coalition partners to maintain power, highlighting a shift towards a more balanced political landscape. The opposition, led by the Congress Party, which increased its seat count from 52 to 99, views this outcome as a moral victory and a mandate for more inclusive governance .

For Australia, this change could foster a more stable and predictable business environment in India, as the need for coalition governance may encourage more consensus-driven economic policies. Australia’s trade relationship with India, particularly in sectors such as education, agriculture and technology, could benefit from India’s anticipated focus on job-intensive growth and skills development .

In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto’s administration aims to continue Indonesia’s “good neighbor” policy, emphasising stable relationships with Southeast Asian nations and major global powers, such as the United States, China, and Australia. However, Prabowo’s past reputation for ultranationalist and chauvinistic views might pose challenges in maintaining consistent diplomatic engagements with Western countries, including Australia. Despite these concerns, Prabowo has expressed a commitment to fostering positive bilateral relations, indicating a desire to build on existing diplomatic foundations laid by his predecessor, Joko Widodo.

Prabowo Subianto’s victory in the presidential election signifies a continuation of the economic policies initiated by Widodo. Prabowo plans to further the “commodity downstreaming” policy, which aims to process raw materials domestically to add value. This includes the manufacturing of products, such as electric vehicle batteries, from nickel, enhancing Indonesia’s economic resilience and attracting foreign investment .

Australia, which shares robust trade and investment ties with Indonesia, stands to benefit from Indonesia’s drive towards high-income status and its potential membership in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. These developments could lead to more significant trade opportunities and collaborative ventures in sectors, such as mining, energy and education.

Overall, the political shifts in India and Indonesia highlight a move towards more balanced governance, which could provide a stable foundation for economic growth and bilateral relations with Australia. This period of change offers Australia a strategic opportunity to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with these key regional players.

INDONESIA: slaughter steers $4.7 kg live weight (IDR 10,797 = 1 AUD)

As of June, the market price for beef remains stable, ranging from $12.50 to $13.24 AUD (135,000 to 143,000 IDR) per kg. However, carcass prices have slightly decreased from a minimum of $9.72 AUD per kg (105,000 IDR per kg) to between $9.12 and $9.36 AUD (98,500 to 101,000 IDR) per kg. This drop could be attributed to a decrease in the price of corn (feed grade), which fell from $0.78 AUD (8390 IDR) per kg in late April to $0.51 AUD (5,500 IDR) per kg in May.

The latest regulation from the National Food Agency on beef price caps aims to stabilise the market and protect consumers.

Industry leaders and stakeholders gathered to reflect on the achievements of the Indonesia- Australia Red Meat and Cattle Partnership (RMCP). Programs such as the NTCA Indonesia Australia Pastoral Program (NIAPP), Forum of Animal Welfare Officers (FAWO), the Short-Term Australia Award on Biosecurity, and SISKA (palm-cattle integration) were highlighted for their significant contributions to the industry. Participants acknowledged the successes of these programs through knowledge exchange, capacity building, and improvements in cattle management and health practices, which foster stronger bilateral relations.

The tone of the meeting was both celebratory and contemplative, given it marked the end of the 10-year, $60 million AUD program. There was an undercurrent of uncertainty about what lies ahead. Without confirmed future funding, the continuity of these impactful programs is in question, leaving stakeholders to ponder the next steps in the Indonesia-Australia cattle relationship.

VIETNAM: slaughter steers $4.63kg live weight (VND 16,910 = 1AUD)

Cattle and beef prices were stable, with our reported price dropping slightly due to the weakening Vietnamese dong. Live export figures from Australia to Vietnam have been high since the start of the year but have reportedly slowed down slightly as high demand from Indonesia competes for shipping space.

On May 24, a policy dialogue on Sustainable Development for the Beef and Cattle Sector in Vietnam took place within the Trade and Innovation Development Cooperation Project between Australia and Vietnam. Funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Australia-Vietnam Enhanced Economic Engagement Grant, the event was organised by the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development under Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Co-chaired by the Department of Livestock Production, Griffith University – Australia, FocusGroup Go, and Meat and Livestock Australia, the dialogue included 30 delegates. Key topics included the development of grassfed livestock farming in Vietnam, policies for the beef cattle industry, and trends in buffalo and beef consumption. Discussions focused on market and trade trends, advantages and challenges in managing beef and buffalo quality, live animal quarantine, disease safety, transportation, slaughtering, animal welfare, and greenhouse gas emissions (Source: Asian Beef Network).

PHILIPPINES: slaughter steers $3.5kg liveweight (P. 38.94 = 1AUD)

Another steady month in the Philippines with little change in prices. In wet markets and supermarkets alike, beef knuckle has been trading at $14.89kg and $16.18kg (P. 580kg and P. 630kg), respectively. Local cattle prices in Mindanao are still pegged between $3.34-3.73kg (P. 130-145kg) liveweight, and the hot carcass meat price is approximately $6.67kg (P. 260kg). It is important to note that these figures pertain to cattle bred and traded within Mindanao, not Australian imports.

AUSTRALIA: feeder steers Darwin $3.10, Townsville $2.60

A very busy period for live exports as the northern trade got into full swing. Competition is fierce for shipping space with most exporters being able to lock in longer-term charters on vessels thanks to a confidence that they will be able to fill them, and a need to secure space from competitors.

ABOVE: 2024 YEAR TO JANUARY FIGURES FOR CATTLE SEA FREIGHT ACROSS ASIA BY STATE

ABOVE: YEAR 2024 TO JANUARY FOR CATTLE SEA FREIGHT COMPARISON ACROSS ASIAN MARKETS