KEY POINTS

• Lumpy skin disease (LSD) has now been confirmed in East Java presenting a new threat to Bali and the Eastern Island chain
• Indonesian foot and mouth Disease vaccinations pass eight million doses

INDONESIAN

SLAUGHTER STEERS $5.05KG LIVE WEIGHT (RP10,300 = $1AUD)

Slaughter cattle prices remained steady at Rp52,000kg live weight while the AUD value above has reduced as a result of the AUD weakening against the rupiah. The general comment from the market is that consumer demand remains very weak with quite low numbers trading at this static price. I am told that there are large volumes of Indian buffalo meat in the market with the price at Lotte Mart at Rp104,900kg. There may also be a continuation of the release of the frozen foot and mouth disease emergency slaughter stock depressing fresh beef demand, although I am unable to find any hard data on volumes for this item. Food inflation is still a major issue across Indonesia, as it is in the rest of the world, so this is also likely to be contributing to anaemic demand for fresh beef. Chicken prices are relatively steady at Rp40,000kg.

The FMD vaccination program is slogging, along although it is very difficult to understand the true state of the control program as the government reporting arrangements are nowhere near adequate to make any sensible assessment. National cattle numbers are not known or if they are they are not made public. If eight million head have been vaccinated, what proportion of the herd is that? What proportion of those vaccinations were the second dose? If the national cattle herd is, as some sources claim, about 14 million then we need two doses or 28 million vaccinations before the cattle herd will be well protected, with a third shot necessary for strong and continuing protection. It appears that while there is no shortage of vaccine, the problem is still funding and resources for the actual delivery of the vaccine into stock. This is especially expensive when the average cattle owner has only two head of cattle so the logistics of locating, visiting, completing biosecurity measures, vaccinating each animal with a single use syringe etc, then packing up and moving to the next farmer, is an extremely slow and expensive process. It will therefore take years to achieve a strong level of herd protection. Add LSD into the mix and every aspect gains an additional level of cost and complexity.

The cattle in the photos are near me in Bali where there are about 100 head within 400 meters of my house in the main tourist area of Seminyak. After being away for about three weeks, I took the photo of the cow that had been ear-tagged with the new government technology using a QR code to store the vaccination and other history of the animal. Most of the local adult cattle in my area now have these tags but a few still do not.

LSD has now commenced its spread throughout southern Sumatra and Java with numerous reports of clinical cases in the Malang area in the far east of Java island. Malang is less than 200 kilometres from the island of Bali as the crow flies or, in this case, as the insect flies. Some local observers suggest that the rapid spread through Java is more likely to be due to illegal animal movements on trucks rather than through insect transmission.

This now means that the cattle in Bali will be under threat in the coming months of the monsoon season when the prevailing winds will be blowing almost directly from Java to Bali. No live cattle are permitted to enter Bali from any other location, including Java, so any LSD infection in Bali is more likely to be through insect transmission or physical transfer of infected material. Official figures presented by the government state that 11,474 cases of LSD have now been confirmed across six provinces. This is probably an extremely conservative estimate.

This now means that the cattle in Bali will be under threat in the coming months of the monsoon season when the prevailing winds will be blowing almost directly from Java to Bali. No live cattle are permitted to enter Bali from any other location, including Java, so any LSD infection in Bali is more likely to be through insect transmission or physical transfer of infected material. Official figures presented by the government state that 11,474 cases of LSD have now been confirmed across six provinces. This is probably an extremely conservative estimate.

Darwin feeder steer prices have fallen from $5.25 in October to $5.00kg live weight, which is opposite to the usual price trend at this time of the year. The prices for finished cattle have slipped substantially in eastern Australia and this has reduced demand for feeders going from northern Australia to the eastern states. This reduced demand from the east may well be the explanation for the slightly weaker Darwin feeder price. Thanks to the efficient work of Carleen Mitchell from the Darwin Port Authority, we have up-to-date data on all livestock exports: 19,685 cattle were exported to Indonesia on eight vessels during November. It’s a pity that the Federal Government agencies that collect the same data are not able to provide it for all Australian ports in such a timely manner.

VIETNAM SLAUGHTER STEERS $5.28KG (VND16,300 TO $1AUD)

 No change again in the slaughter cattle prices with the indicator rate remaining at dong 86,000kg live weight. The drop in the AUD price is due to the substantial weakening of the Aussie dollar against most currencies, including the dong. Vietnamese importers will be encouraged by the sudden reduction in the price of slaughter cattle in the east and south of Australia. Slaughter ox and bulls suitable for Vietnam are selling for around $4 or less per kg live weight in Townsville, which should give importers a reasonable chance of at least breaking even once again. From the beginning of 2022 until now, the whole country has had 1185 outbreaks of African swine fever in 52 provinces and cities, forcing the destruction of 54,533 pigs. In November, the whole country had 23 outbreaks in 20 districts of 14 provinces. In a major international breakthrough, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that Vietnam has successfully produced the world’s first commercial vaccine against ASF. The vaccine was developed through a collaboration between the Vietnamese company Navetco and researchers from the US Agricultural research institute. The product is undergoing the registration approval process.

CHINA SLAUGHTER CATTLE $7.69KG LIVE WEIGHT (RMB 4.75 = 1AUD$)

Slaughter cattle prices continue their rise with small increases in both Beijing and Shanghai. The AUD price above is lower as a result of AUD/ yuan cross rate changes. Domestic beef cattle and beef production is predicted to increase during 2023. South American imports are expected to decline next year due to reduced supplies. Despite the difficult beef market and general economic problems in 2023, Australia is expected to increase its exports to China as its herd numbers recover and slaughter rates begin to rise. If the drought breaks in the US there is likely to be a sharp reduction in slaughter rates so the combined north and south American competition may well experience a sharp decline.