Key points:

• Indonesia’s demand is holding strong, supported by stable prices and new programs.
• Vietnam’s livestock herds are shrinking under import pressure and high feed costs.
• Australia’s disease-free status continues to underpin strong regional trust.

DARWIN: feeder steers $3.50kg

The dry season is winding down and cattle numbers remain strong, consistent with industry expectations of stable live export supply through 2025. Live export capacity is holding steady, supported by a well-timed and manageable Dry that extended mustering opportunities and maintained paddock access across much of the north. Recent data show Australian exports to Indonesia hit nearly 300,000 head from January to July, about 17 per cent above the recent five-year average and the largest year-to-date total in six years. Seasonal forecasts support this performance. Despite drier outlooks in southern regions, northern conditions have remained favourable enough to maintain turn-off and export schedules..

INDONESIA: slaughter steers $4.50kg live weight (IDR 10,786 = $1 AUD)

Live cattle prices across Indonesia have edged slightly higher, with Lampung recording a modest rise and Java maintaining its premium over other regions. In Lampung, bulls and steers lifted by about IDR 1000kg, now trading between IDR 48,000–49,000kg (AUD 4.45–4.54kg), while heifers remain steady at IDR 47,000–48,000kg (AUD 4.36–4.45kg). On Java, bulls and steers also firmed by roughly IDR 1000kg (AUD 0.09kg), now fetching IDR 50,000–52,000kg (AUD 4.64–4.82kg), while heifers continue to hold at IDR 49,000–50,000kg. (AUD 4.54–4.64kg) The firm pricing on Java still reflects stronger local demand and possibly tighter supply in central markets. Overall, cattle values have recovered slightly. 

Protests that erupted across Indonesia in late August and early September have escalated into one of President Prabowo Subianto’s greatest early challenges. What began as demonstrations over rising land taxes, parliamentary perks and the death of a ride-hailing driver in police custody has rapidly grown into broader unrest. Several government buildings have been torched, homes of senior officials looted and a heavy security response has been deployed, including military involvement. Market confidence has slipped, with the Jakarta stock index and rupiah both under pressure.

VIETNAM: slaughter steers $4.61kg live weight (VND 17,234 = $1 AUD)

Vietnam’s beef and cattle sector is under serious strain, and the numbers coming through confirm what I have been hearing from feedlot operators and traders in recent times. Herd sizes in the south have thinned out considerably, with some operations reducing numbers by more than half compared with four years ago. High feed costs remain the main constraint, made worse by the reintroduction of a 5 percent VAT on animal feed earlier this year, which removed a key exemption the industry had relied on. Add in a weakening dong against the US dollar and producers are getting squeezed from both sides. Meanwhile, imports are surging. Brazilian pork is undercutting local produce by 20-30 percent, and supermarket chains are selling frozen beef from Canada and Australia at just 60-80 percent of domestic prices. Vietnamese processors are still banking on the local preference for freshly slaughtered meat, but with chilled supply chains slowly expanding, that cultural edge may not last. 

The latest herd figures confirm the trend. As of June, cattle numbers were down 0.6 percent year-on-year, and buffalo were down 3.4 percent. On paper, the national beef herd is supposed to remain stable at 6.5-6.6 million head, and official forecasts even suggest a modest rise by 2026. But those projections rest on assumptions that feel increasingly detached from present conditions. Many smallholders are pulling out entirely, while others are holding on with minimal restocking. On the dairy side, growth has essentially stalled, with the national herd sitting at just two-thirds of the 2025 target. For a country that once aimed to be more self-reliant in livestock production, the outlook is firmly import-driven. 

For Australia, this shift presents opportunity and risk. Demand for imported beef will likely keep climbing if the local herd keeps going backwards, but the transition won’t be smooth. Vietnam still lacks the cold chain to fully shift from fresh to frozen, and any system that leans heavily on imports without reliable distribution is asking for trouble. Live cattle have been plugging that gap for years, supplying local abattoirs and fresh markets where fresh beef still holds a strong position against imports due to its perceived freshness. That’s not likely to change overnight, but nor is it a growth story. Volumes might hold steady, but it’s hard to imagine a big bounce. Longer term, as chilled logistics improve and habits shift, that market could tighten. 

PHILIPPINES: slaughter steers $3.32kg live weight (₱37 = $1 AUD) 

Livestock and meat prices have largely held steady, with wet market beef at P390kg ($10.44 AUD) and supermarket rates unchanged at P440kg ($11.78 AUD). Slaughter steer prices have eased slightly to P124kg ($3.32 AUD) live weight, while pork carcass remains firm at P240kg ($6.42 AUD). Broiler is steady at P170kg ($4.55 AUD), with supermarket-branded Magnolia broiler now trading at P247 ($6.61 AUD). 

The Philippines has introduced a temporary ban on the importation of live cattle and buffalo from France and Italy following outbreaks of exotic animal diseases in both countries. 

Italy’s National Reference Centre for Exotic Animal Diseases reported an outbreak in Orani, Nuoro, Sardegna on 18 July, while France’s veterinary office confirmed an outbreak in Chambéry on 23 June. 

The Department of Agriculture says the bans are a precautionary measure to protect local herds and the wider livestock sector from the risk of disease incursion. Import shipments of live cattle, buffalo and related genetic materials will be suspended until further notice. 

Meanwhile, the latest figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority show mixed signals in the country’s livestock production. Cattle output grew by 2 percent in the second quarter of 2025, while carabao production declined by 2.9 percent. 

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Dr Michael Patching’s blog seabeefreport.com aims to inform the reader about the beef industry in South-East Asia with particular reference to the live export trade from Australia. Beef consumers in Asia will, in due course, be the biggest single customer group for Australia. Therefore, it’s essential that the Australian industry has a good understanding of this market maximise its potential. Finding information in foreign countries is a difficult process for individuals in Australia to achieve. Ross’s experience gives him insights that Australian producers and other industry stake holders can’t easily obtain.