Key points:

The future of Indian buffalo meat (IBM) imports to Indonesia up in the air

Cross-border cattle movement into Vietnam from Myanmar and Thailand continues, exacerbated by political instability and lax enforcement, increasing disease risks

Aussie dairy cattle expected to help with Philippines efforts to achieve 5 percent milk self-sufficiency by 2028

Looking back on 2024

The Southeast Asian livestock and beef trade in 2024 highlighted a region grappling with a growing need to secure protein supply, of which imported cattle and beef is a major component, and a desire to protect local producers. Political shifts, climate events and persistent disease threats created a volatile environment, testing the resilience of supply chains and trade relationships. 

Indonesia’s growing focus on food self-sufficiency, driven by their new President, Prabowo Subianto, is emblematic of a broader regional desire to reduce import dependency, despite the reality of this being very challenging to achieve for many countries with limited capacity to increase their own livestock herds and production. While this type of agenda aims to bolster domestic industries, it also creates significant uncertainty for exporters to these markets navigating new rules, quotas, and preferences for local supply chains. Yet, for those who can align with these priorities — through investments in disease management, breeding programs or general food security support — there remains ample opportunity. 

Vietnam’s reliance on cross-border cattle imports and the durability of trading networks in spite of movement restrictions illustrate the gaps in the region’s regulatory frameworks. These issues, combined with rising demand and limited local production capacity, highlight a structural challenge: how to balance growth with biosecurity and traceability. Conversely, the Philippines’ investment in dairy infrastructure signals an increasing willingness among regional players to take the long view, prioritising resilience over short-term gains.

For the Australian industry, 2024’s greatest lesson may be the importance of being seen not just as a supplier but as a partner in regional development. Whether through improving disease management, investing in local supply chains, or offering technical expertise, the key to enduring relevance lies in helping Southeast Asia navigate its complex transformation.

AUSTRALIA: feeder steers Darwin $3.50

There is a rush of boats and cattle out of Darwin as Indonesian importers continue to fill their feedlots ahead of the uncertain period at the start of 2025 where they may have to wait for import permits to be issued. Many feedlots are already well stocked as they begin their 120-day feeding regimes leading to Ramadan and Eid al Fitr in February and March. Producers will be enjoying the interest from exporters which has pushed prices to their highest in six months and more than 15 percent higher than the same time last year. 

INDONESIA: slaughter steers $4.46kg live weight (IDR 10,344 = $1 AUD) 

Beef and carcass prices have barely moved, sitting around IDR 130,000 ($12.57 and 90,000 ($8.70) respectively. The price of broiler chickens is averaging around IDR 36,000 ($3.48) per kg, down very slightly.

Two priorities are taking the focus of Australian exporters of live cattle and beef to Indonesia. One is the concern over the timing of import permit releases in 2025. The other is 2025 quotas for the import of Indian buffalo meat (IBM), and which organisation will be given the role of distribution. For several years Bulog, which has been responsible for food distribution and price controls, has held the role and by the numbers has been successful in filling its quota most years. In 2024, the role was handed to PT Berdikari and PT Perusahaan Perdagangan Indonesia (PPI), who appear to have not used those permits fully, with IBM imports down substantially. The effect on the market in 2024 has been mitigated by a large backlog of product still working its way through the system from 2023, but if the situation continues it could open the door for importers of Australian cattle to claw back some market share. The Indonesian government has recently stated that it is considering Bulog’s future purpose and considering reforms, which 

YEAR 2024 TO NOVEMBER FOR CATTLE EXPORTS – COMPARISON ACROSS SE ASIAN MARKETS